NBA Finals Preview

The NBA Finals tip off tonight in Oklahoma City.

The obvious headline for the series is "MVP vs. Scoring Champ." And the LeBron James/Kevin Durant matchup will certainly be compelling. But I'm guessing the key player - and eventual Finals MVP - will be Russell Westbrook.

Westbrook has the reputation of a player who will let his emotions get the better of him at inopportune times, who will over-dribble and neglect to get Durant and his other teammates involved in the offense. And Oklahoma City's offense reinforces that perception to some extent; the Thunder thrive on dribble penetration; they were last in the NBA in assists during the regular season. The dribble-drive offense stalled out against San Antonio's tough, disciplined defense in the first two games of the Western Conference Finals, but Westbrook - and OKC coach Scott Brooks - were able to adjust to a more pass-oriented attack. They swept the next four games to advance to the Finals.

If Westbrook can continue to play smart basketball, he could go from being the Thunder's potential liability to, perhaps, their biggest advantage.

OKC's other big advantage is depth. James has been outstanding, but Wade has been spotty at times and Chris Bosh missed much of the Eastern Conference Semifinals and Finals due to injury. The Thunder have the dynamic duo of Durant and Westbrook, the shot-blocking presence of Serge Ibaka, sixth-man extraordinaire James Harden, defensive specialist Thabo Sefolosha, physical center Kendrick Perkins, and quality veterans like Nick Collison and Derek Fisher. Miami will need the Big Three to play at something approaching peak capacity, and for the supporting cast to make a significant contribution if they're going to win this series.

The home court edge could be significant, Oklahoma City's Cheseapeake Energy Arena is one of the toughest venues in the NBA, with an atmosphere many describe as "collegiate." And OKC has yet to lose a game at home during these playoffs while the Heat have lost in Miami twice. But the NBA Finals home/away format could dull that edge a bit; games one and two will be played at "the Peake," but three, four and five are slated for the American Airlines Arena in Miami. And while the Thunder had one of the NBA's top home records this season at 26-7, Miami's (28-5) was even better.

My prediction? The Thunder win in six games, and Westbrook is named MVP. James plays brilliantly, leading Miami in scoring while making Durant's life incredibly difficult... and yet, "The King" gets the lion's share of the blame afterwards.

• NBA Finals: Series Preview and Schedule
• NBA Finals History

Image: Kevin Durant #35 drives after a Kendrick Perkins #5 of the Oklahoma City Thunder pick against the San Antonio Spurs in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. The Thunder beat the Spurs 107-99.
Getty Images / Brett Deering